8/16 Monday 9:30 am
Portions of the forecast area have seen a slight increase in smoke today. This will continue throughout the day. I see nothing on the smoke model leading me to believe that we will approach advisory conditions over the next 24 hours.
Yesterday was fun for many rain lovers across the central and southern portions of the forecast area. A couple of storms developed in the overnight hours as well. There were numerous reports in the 0.25″ to 0.50″ range. Durango Hills area reported 0.77″. Trappers Crossing was the big winner with 1.50″!
Today, things will once again be favorable for storm development. Conditions will be similar to Saturday rather than yesterday. It looks like the northern portions of the forecast area will be favored for development. But you definitely can’t rule isolated storms developing across the entire forecast area. Moisture will be recycled from the areas that received moderate to heavy rain yesterday. Here is the CAPE forecast for today and this evening, beginning at 9 am. Notice the sharp drop-off in values beginning late afternoon/early evening. This is a result of slightly drier air working in from the north.
Tuesday will be a transition day, storm chances will decrease slightly. Wednesday still looks like the best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms. The GFS moves the rain out Thursday early, but the other models show the rain continuing throughout the day on Thursday.
Here are the precipitation forecasts through Friday morning.
Euro
WPC
I could not help but notice that the Euro is actually showing some non-accumulating snow above 13,000 feet this afternoon and a couple of days this week. A great reminder that meteorological fall starts in 16 days…
The next update is Tuesday, thanks for following and supporting the site!