8/18 Wednesday 4 pm
One of my favorite things when forecasting is when models trend up with their precipitation forecast right before the onset of precipitation. It does not guarantee anything, but it is a very good sign. The front/low-pressure system is semi-stalled from Central Utah back into Nevada. There is a surface low-pressure area along the Central Colorado-Utah border. The two are working in concert advecting monsoonal moisture into the western portions of the forecast area. The precipitation should move east as we approach the evening hours. The latest model runs are going a bit crazy with the precipitation for the next 18 hours. I am trying not to get too excited, but it is difficult to resist. Here are the forecasted amounts through Friday morning.
Check out the flip on the NAM 3km high-resolution model over the last 6 hours.
The German ICON model continues to be impressive.
For what it is worth, the GFS trended up slightly as well. The amounts for the areas this model is forecasting makes no sense, but I will give it credit since it is trending up. I expect we will see another “upgrade” to this model within the next 18 months. It will be the 17th upgrade.
Fortunately, we are not under the Flood Watch curse from the NWS.
I am looking forward to your weather reports. The next update will be Thursday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!