Hurricane Ida Saturday Early Update

Saturday 8/28 4 am (MDT)

My next local ( SW Colorado) forecast update will be around 9 am this morning.

Hurricane Ida strengthened yesterday afternoon and is currently north of Cuba with winds at approximately 70 knots (80 mph).

 

The models continue to show rapid intensification and strengthening to a moderate category 3 hurricane (952 mb).

The global and hurricane models differ slightly with the path of the hurricane. But most models are showing the worst wind and rain west of New Orleans. In some respect, this is good but, the greatest surge is usually northeast of the landfall so that is a big concern.

Here is the latest guidance for the track of Ida.

And here is the European model member’s guidance.

It is important to note that with major hurricanes landfall does not reflect when the dangerous winds begin. Dangerous conditions can occur long before that. That will be the case with Ida.

Tropical storm conditions will develop along the eastern coast of Louisiana by 9 pm this evening. Hurricane conditions will develop about 12 hours later by mid to late Sunday morning.

Here are the maximum wind gusts starting this evening through Monday at 1 pm.

Here is a more regional view beginning this evening and extending through Tuesday at 7 am.

Here is the area depicted in this model run showing the most damaging winds.

Here is the maximum wind gust swath.

Here is a regional view of the same.

Here is the local precipitation forecast.

Here is the regional view of the same.

Here is the latest National Weather Service guidance on storm surge.

If you have a vested interest in this storm make sure you stay up to date with the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center as well as local emergency managers.

My next Hurricane update will be this afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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