Saturday 8/28 8:45 am
Slightly drier air is in place this morning. The CAPE forecast shows less available energy for storm development today. Conditions were a little better yesterday, but not that great. Despite all of that a very thin line of localized thunderstorms moved across the Durango area. Here was the radar as the storm moved through.
I got reports of up to 0.38″ from this sneaky localized storm. You just never know.
As I said conditions are less favorable for storm development today. But after yesterday, I can’t rule anything out.
I mentioned the smoke concerns yesterday. It appears the majority of the forecast area will miss out on the smoke. Later today the smoke will drift south. The heaviest smoke will be from Montrose to the north. The smoke will be less for the southern portions of the forecast area, and should not reach dangerous levels in those locations. Here is the 48 smoke forecast.
Next week still looks interesting with all of the global models showing remnants of Hurricane Nora drifting into our area. The pattern will change right before the arrival of the moisture when the high-pressure ridge slides east over the divide. This will pave the way for the moisture to stream into the region. There is some indication from the models that the pattern will remain in place for a few days afterward. There should be enough moisture left to recycle several days of thunderstorms.
Here are the models’ precipitation forecasts for the next 10 days. There should be very little if any accumulation before Tuesday with the majority falling late Wednesday through Friday afternoon.
The next update will be Sunday, thanks for following and supporting the site!