Sunday 8/28 8:45 am
As expected, the smoke has started to drift south. This will continue throughout the day. The smoke should stay well below dangerous levels and should not affect areas south of San Miguel and Ouray counties.
For today, there is just a slight chance of afternoon showers. Mainly, from Lake City to Wolf Creek Pass. High-resolution models are showing an uptick in available moisture after 7 pm. I don’t believe that will be enough to spark and brief shower but you never know.
That uptick in moisture will survive until late morning Monday, then we will dry back out. Moisture will start to move into the forecast area very late Tuesday. Here is the progression of the moisture from 12 am Tuesday morning until 6 pm Wednesday evening as depicted by the increase in precipitable water values (PWAT).
At the moment, it looks like there will be a slight chance of isolated showers Tuesday afternoon, scattered showers and storms Wednesday, and widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. After that, the models diverge a bit.
The long-term precipitation forecast still looks very encouraging. Here are the 10-day precipitation forecasts. The majority of the rain will fall on Thursday and Friday.
Euro
GFS
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