8/31 Tuesday 12:20
Sad but true, Nora made landfall just west of Durango, Durango, Mexico that is… She barely made it into the Gulf of California before drifting east and shattering apart. That is roughly 550 miles south of where it was originally expected she would turn in.
Because of this, the projected rainfall amounts are far less than expected. It is almost a stretch to say the remnants will track over us. We will see sub-tropical moisture pulled into the area. Fortunately, there are a couple of areas of low pressure to our west that will pull that moisture up from Northern Mexico. I would say it is closer to monsoonal flow than Nora’s remnants.
This will be more of a short-lived event than originally anticipated. Showers will move in from west to east Wednesday, most likely beginning late morning and intensifying throughout the day. Showers should continue through the night and overnight hours. Residual moisture should drive afternoon showers on Thursday. I will have a better idea of timing when the early model runs post, around 8:30 am.
The models are in pretty good agreement on the precipitation amounts. The GFS is the low outlier. Of course, we are now relying on the track and timing of the low-pressure systems. A wobble in one direction or another could dramatically affect the outcome. We could just as easily get more or less rain than the models are currently forecasting.
If you followed my Hurricane Ida updates you know how heavily I relied on the European model. You also know how good it was with the timing, the landfall accuracy, rain totals, and maximum wind gusts. The wind gusts of 170+ mph at Port Fourchon were predicted long in advance of landfall by the European model. So the question everyone should be asking is why is that model so accurate there and much less accurate here?
There is a simple answer, data. Data was constantly fed into the weather models. Data from aircraft recon missions, ocean buoys, ships, and oil platforms. Data from National Weather Service (weather) balloons. We don’t have that here. The data that is gathered is mostly in Grand Junction and to a certain extent Flagstaff. It is highly unlikely that we will ever see a new National Weather Service office open in SW Colorado. Radar will help, but it will mostly help during storms. By the way, the last thing I heard is that it would be late 2022 before we get the radar here. I am out of the loop at this point. If someone that is in the loop wants to update me with an email that would be great.
Back to the remnants of Hurricane Nobody, here are the current precipitation forecasts. These are the amounts for Wednesday and Thursday through Friday morning at 6 am.
WPC The Weather Prediction Center’s blended model
NBM The National Weather Service’s blended model
ECMWF European model
ICON German model
GEM Canadian model
My next update will be out before 9 am Wednesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!