A Look Ahead

Friday 9/3 9:30 am

With the exception of some of the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area, storms could not get going yesterday. Cool cloudy days are always a nice alternative in the early days of fall. Just a couple of hundredths fell across southern portions of the forecast area. Here are some of those totals across the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area.

Telluride 0.17″ Cortez 0.14″ Dolores 0.15″ Ridgway 0.15″ Ouray 0.09″ Egnar 0.59″ (located in southeast San Miguel County) and an unincorporated area in northeast San Miguel County reported 0.76″

The haze will return to the entire forecast area today. Haze does not equal dangerous smoke conditions. For those interested, here is the smoke forecast for the next 48 hours.

For those of you who like my hurricane discussions, Larry will not affect the United States. We are headed into a period of unfavorable tropical development until mid-month. The areas that have been hit so far remain the most vulnerable and likely targets through the end of the season. Especially the western Gulf Of Mexico (Texas and Louisiana).

For today, above-average moisture remains in place under southwest flow. CAPE values will be low once again today. The best chance of afternoon storms will be over the higher terrain and northern portions of the forecast area.

We have had a good start to the month for precipitation for most of the forecast area. The models are pretty consistent in keeping dry air in place for the next week or so. This would limit convection to the highest terrain.

The models are split by next weekend. The GFS is showing a pattern change with the ridge breaking down and sub-tropical moisture moving back into the area for a few days. The Euro is showing dry conditions for its entire 10-day forecast period. We have quite a while to figure all of that out. We have made a huge dent in the drought locally. If we can finish the second half of September strong we will be in a good place going into winter.

Speaking of winter, The Euro weeklies are out on Mondays and Thursdays. They provide guidance for up to 46 days. They tend to have a warm bias to their forecast after two weeks. That being said, they are fun for snow lovers to look at. I like to include them in my updates this time of year. Here is the latest 46-day snow forecast (before melting) for the region.

Here is the 46-day liquid-equivalent precipitation anomaly forecast. This shows average to slightly above average precipitation for this period in our area.

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