Finally, Something To Talk About

9/17 Friday 8:45 am

The models have introduced a little moisture for the weekend. Nothing exciting, but something to keep an eye on. Everything is so dry I suspect the models are a little too ambitious. I would be surprised if anything reaches the ground below 8,500 feet, but we will see. If it comes together, the best chances would be Sunday afternoon, but there is a very slight chance of late-day rain on Saturday.

The models are less clear about the cold front passing to our north late Sunday into Monday. I am not sure how much it will impact us. I do know that the models have been horrible at forecasting the overnight/morning low temps. The Euro and GFS have consistently been 7 to 10 degrees too warm. The Canadian has been nearly perfect. The Canadian is forecasting near-freezing temps in the lower and mid-elevations Tuesday morning. Mountain temps are forecasted to be in the mid to upper 20’s by Tuesday morning. The Euro and the GFS are not as cold, but as I said they have been wrong lately.

I will be following this and will be updating everyone over the coming days in case people have outdoor vegetation they need to protect.

Here are the latest deterministic model runs showing the precipitation developing this weekend.  I put the maps in motion from Saturday morning through Tuesday morning.



Here is the same time period showing the track of the cold front.




Notice how the ridge begins to quickly fill back in (unfortunately) as the front exits to the east.

Here is the latest run of the Euro weekly showing the snow forecast through October.

That’s it for now, next update Saturday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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