Still A lot of Weather Questions For The Next 72 hours

Saturday 9/18 8:40 am

Most of the models are trending towards a wetter solution for later today and tomorrow than they were yesterday. The exception is the Canadian model, which so far, is more partial to clouds than actual rainfall reaching the ground.

The models seem to be picking up on a slight disturbance to our west. As it approaches they are showing moisture increasing substantially, mostly after 2 pm today. This moisture will peak late this evening and into the overnight hours. The moisture then slowly erodes starting around 9 or 10 am Sunday and conditions will dry out significantly by Monday and Tuesday. I am still expecting near-freezing temperatures by Tuesday morning for low and mid-elevations with much colder conditions at or above 8,800 feet.

Here are the latest model runs showing a slight uptick in precipitation accumulation. The GFS is by far the most aggressive. I am anxious to see the next set of model runs later today.

Canadian (the outlier)

Weather Prediction Center blended model


Euro (this is better than its previous run)

GFS (most aggressive)

I did just look at the NAM 3km (North American Mesoscale high-resolution model), it is still in the middle of processing data, but it is trending towards a later start time for the precipitation. It is also slower to erode the moisture on Sunday.

Basically, there are still a lot of balls up in the air for this little disturbance. There are also a number of different solutions for the cold front passing to our north late Sunday/early Monday. At least it is something to talk about.

Next update Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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