Sunday 9/19 10:15 am
Scattered showers delivered modest amounts of precipitation throughout the forecast area last night. Amounts were generally 0.25″ inches or less, however, a few locations in Montezuma and Dolores counties reported 0.30″ to 0.50″.
Most models show only a slight chance of rain re-developing today. The NAM 3km high-resolution model is the exception, it is more aggressive, we’ll see. If anything develops, the areas that received the most rain overnight would be favored.
The highly touted cold front is just reaching NW Wyoming, it will continue to work its way southeast. Not much has changed, it still looks like impacts will be minimal. The coldest air will stay north and east of us. Tuesday will be the coldest morning of the week. Tomorrow afternoon I will update everyone on overnight lows. Far eastern portions of the forecast area will be at the greatest risk of freezing temps in all elevations. My followers from Wolf Creek to Alamosa will all likely see some freezing temps as well.
The models are in agreement that the ridge will move back in over the area and temps will warm back up. This is the consensus until we approach the weekend. By the weekend the GFS and the Canadian models are showing a closed low working in from southern California, eventually bringing in some rain and snow. The Euro shows nothing but a strengthening ridge and warm temps. So, there may be something to talk about mid to late week.
Next update Monday afternoon. Thanks for the weather reports, and thank you for following and supporting the site!