A Wet Forecast For Next Week

9/24/21 Friday 8:20 am

Since my last update, the GFS and Euro continue to show a pattern change that will slowly evolve. Scattered to isolated showers are still showing up for Sunday and Monday afternoon. Heavier showers will develop as we move into mid-week.

The Euro’s latest full model run was very aggressive overnight with its precipitation totals.

Euro 10 day liquid

The GFS is still bullish but is struggling a bit with the exact track of the incoming storms.

Latest GFS 10 day liquid

Prior GFS run 6 hours earlier.

The above run is interesting to me because the western portions of the forecast area have done exceptionally well, relative to average, throughout the summer and early fall.

The Euro weeklies came out last night. They are showing significant precipitation over the next 46 days. Here is the regional view.

Euro 46 day liquid precipitation totals.

That is a very impressive bullseye over SW Colorado. This is well above average for this time of year.

Liquid precipitation anomaly amounts (above average).

Here are the 46 day snow totals. Remember the Euro is very warm-biased after about 14 days. With the amount of precipitation this model is expecting, I think the snow forecast is too low.

My next update will be Saturday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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