The Best Is Yet to Come

Wednesday 9/29 6:55 am


If you are disappointed with the rain so far this week, don’t be. The highest totals are still forecasted to occur over the next couple of days. The GFS has come more into line with the other models and it is now showing the rain continuing on Friday.

Here is the latest surface map showing the cold front approaching.

The radar is already lit up this morning and it looks like an action-packed day ahead.

Here is a closer look at the snow (blue).

Model Scorecard

Every once in a while, I need to do a deep dive on the models and check out their performance. As you know, I like to give them leeway by judging them over an extended period of time during an event, versus day-to-day. That being said, let’s see how they did yesterday with their 24-hour precipitation forecasts. Here were the Tuesday morning model runs showing the 24-hour precipitation forecasts.






So how did they do? Here are the personal weather station (Wundergound) totals for the last 24 hours across the forecast area.

Cortez 0.25″, Mancos 0.05″, Dolores 0″, Rico 0.14″ Hesperus  0.12″, Telluride in town 0.26″, Telluride Deep Creek 0.86″, Ridgway 0.09″, Silverton 0.08″, Ouray 0.25″

Hesperus 0.12″, Durango West II 0.19″, Rafter J 0.65″, Rafter J 0.28″ (second location), Lake Durango 0.42″, Shenandoah 0.07″, Marvel 0″, Trappers Crossing (1) 0.12″,

Aztec  0″, Bondad 0.42″, Durango westside 0.06″, Durango south 0.28″ Durango downtown 0.17″ Durango north 0.40″, Skyridge (1) 0.08″, Skridge (2) 0.15″, Trimble (203) 0.26″. Falls Creek south 0.50″, Falls Creek north 0.63″, Hermosa east 0.30″, Hermosa west 0.89″, Rockwood 0.12″, Twilight Peaks 0.30″, Hermosa Cliffs 0.42″

Ignacio 0.26″, Florida River Estates 0.16″, Edgemont Highlands 0.05″, Texas Creek 0.37″, Los Ranchitos 0.30″, Vallecito south 0.25″, Vallecito north 0.10″, Forest Lakes (1)  0.34″, Forest Lakes (2) 0.25″, Pine River Ranches  0.14″, Bayfield 0.24″ , Pagosa 0.01″

Overall, the Euro did the best, here it is again so you don’t have to scroll up.

It is surprising to see how localized the totals can be.  In my case, Lake Durango received 0.42″ while DW2 only got 0.19″. There are numerous other examples.

Looking Ahead

As I said earlier, the highest totals of the week are on the way. I am leaving last night’s run of the Canadian model off because after researching all of the 24-hour totals I already know it has not verified (it is already wrong).


Most recent Euro

Euro 6 hours earlier

Most recent German

German 6 hours earlier

Notice I double-checked the Euro and German with their previous runs. That is because the most recent runs seem a little too ambitious to me. Hopefully, they are correct. There are still some model discrepancies regarding the weekend. I will feel better talking about that after another 24 hours of model runs.

On Thursday I will probably do a morning and an afternoon update. Thursday afternoon I will tackle the issue of the lowering snow levels I expect we will see by Friday morning. Right now, I am expecting accumulating snow on Wolf Creek Pass.

My next update will be Thursday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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