I like What I am Seeing

9/30 Thursday 3:30 pm

The models have initialized well with the onset of precipitation. The closed low just to our southwest is drawing in moisture from the south. Showers will continue to develop becoming widespread by evening. Precipitation, heavy at times will fall tonight and at least through the morning hours. So far, I like what I am seeing. As far as the snow goes, I would expect a couple or more inches of wet snow down to 10,000 feet. There could be some significant accumulations above 12,000 feet. Don’t worry, I am seeing some things in the long-term models between October 10th and October 17th that will make all snow lovers happy!

It was brought to my attention that in my haste to get the morning update out, I inadvertently left off the model names on the zoomed-in version of the maps. I corrected it, if you did not see it this morning and want to you can view it here. https://durangoweatherguy.com/2021/09/30/heavy-rain-and-mountain-snow-starts-later-today/

The morning model runs were interesting.  The GFS looks slightly more attainable, yet, it does not make any sense the way it is ignoring most of Archuleta County. The German model took over as the most aggressive model. Close behind is the Canadian model which is now showing double the amounts it showed on its previous run. The new WPC model run looks pretty similar to its earlier run. I would not be surprised to see some of these higher totals.

I referred to heavy rain in the title of this morning’s post. I was asked to define heavy rain. That’s a fair question. I think it is relative to the month or season you are in. The latest model runs are forecasting at least 35% of our average September rainfall in less than a 24 hour period. I consider that heavy.

Here are the latest model runs, I made sure to label them this time so you know what you are looking at.






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