September Recap And The Next Storm

Saturday Through Tuesday

For today and Sunday, there is a chance of afternoon convection developing mainly in the high country. For all other areas, there is only a slight chance of an isolated shower developing. Monday looks like a nice day for everyone, Tuesday is the transition day as it looks likely another system will rumble in from the southwest. More on that later.

The Recent Storm And September Precipitation Recap

When I compile this data it amazes me how drastically different the weather can be between relatively close distances. Anomalies show up everywhere, with both snow and rain. It is much easier for me to track rain because of technology.

Here are the storm totals, followed by the monthly totals.

Durango West Two 1.1″/2.53″, Durango West Two (alternate location) 1.09″/2.71″, Lake Durango 1.13″/2.68″, Rafter J 1.22″/2.37″, Rafter J 1.21″/2.79″, Trappers Crossing 1.10″/2.12″, Trappers Crossing 0.82″/1.48″, Hesperus 1.20″/2.69″, Marvel 0.54″/1.75″

Mancos 0.88″/2.02″, Elk Stream 0.70″/1.79″, Cortez 0.54″/2.28″, Dolores 0.92″/2.83″

Rico 0.57″/2.05″, Telluride (town) 0.14″/1.61″, Telluride (Deep Creek) 0.48″/3.04″, Ridgway 0.05″/1.14″, Ouray 0.13″/1.44″, Silverton 0.23″/1.45″

Hermosa Cliffs 0.58″/2.63″, Lakewood Meadows 1.07″/4.09″, Twilight Peaks 0.60″/2.58″, Lake Purgatory 0.45″/2.04″, Rockwood 0.54″/1.80″

Hermosa (Cottonwood) 0.53″/2.30″, Northwest of Hermosa (affectionately known as the “Bullseye”) 1.48″/5.29″, Bar D 0.77″/3.18″, Falls Creek (south) 0.61″/2.26″, Falls Creek (north) 0.62″/2.77″, Trimble 0.73″/1.93″

Durango (Riverview) 0.51″/2.16″, Durango (downtown) 0.78″/1.58″, Durango (Bo Dean’s) 0.92″/2.27″, Durango (southeast) 0.93″/1.99″ Durango (northeast) 0.86/1.61″. Skyridge 0.91″/1.63″, Skyridge 1.00″/1.76″

Texas Creek 0.98″/1.61″, Florida River Estates 0.93″/2.00″, Los Ranchitos 0.93″/2.16″, Vallecito (south) 0.64″/2.00″, Vallecito (north) 0.84″/2.05″ Forest Lakes 0.63″/1.83″

Ignacio (south of DRO) 0.73″/2.17″, Loma Linda 1.01″/1.95″, Bondad 0.52″/1.65″, Aztec 0.37″/1.42″

Pagosa (northwest) 0.59″/1.93″, Pagosa (east) 0.43/1.88″, Pagosa Lakes 0.61″/1.86″, Hatcher Lake 0.63″/1.95″

Quite a spread!

Our Next Storms

Tuesday will be a transitional day as another closed-low approaches from the southwest (I sure hope this continues into the winter). Models are showing showers breaking out Tuesday night then continuing through Wednesday before finally moving out Late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Here is what that looks like according to the Euro model.

You can see the circle (closed low) come onshore in Southern California Tuesday morning and quickly generate showers as it comes across Arizona.

The Euro was the first model to predict this. The Canadian then quickly jumped on. The German was next and the GFS is finally on board. It has been increasing the precipitation totals in its latest runs. Here are the latest forecasted precipitation totals.





These amounts will fluctuate day-to-day, but I like what I am seeing so far.

You may have noticed I mentioned “storms”. You may also remember that a couple of days ago I talked about the period from October 10th to October 16th.  It is starting to look like another disturbance will approach our area around the 10th, followed by a colder and stronger storm around the 14th-16th. It is way too early to know if that will happen, let alone what track it will take. That being said it looks like we will be in a favorable environment for storms to drop into the west.

That’s all I’ve got for now. My next update will be on Sunday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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