Sunday 10/3 8:10 am
Yesterday, it was a little more active in the mountains than the models predicted. For today, expect another round of isolated afternoon showers in the high country.
The first half of October looks like it will be keeping forecasters on their toes. There are still issues on timing and storm track, but the three major models and their ensemble families are showing three distinct storm systems over the next 10-12 days. The Canadian model is trying to bring in a fourth system.
The ball gets rolling late in the day Tuesday bringing rain and high elevation snow, It should move out by late Wednesday, October 6th. Another system is showing up late Friday/ early Saturday and moving out Sunday, October 10th. The Canadian is showing another storm, or perhaps a piece of a storm moving in Monday. The other models are showing another storm arriving late Tuesday, October 12th.
For Tuesday-Wednesday, the Euro and GFS have switched their enthusiasm levels. The GFS is bullish and the Euro has backed off. The Canadian and German are in between the two models.
The Euro is pretty excited about that October 12th system. It shows a major winter storm arriving right at the end of the 240-hour model run. It reminds me of a cliffhanger ending for a TV series finale. It’s like all of your favorite characters get in a plane crash and you won’t know who survived until the next season. Fortunately, the full (240-hour run ) Euro updates every 12 hours so I don’t have to wait until next season.
Here is how the Euro’s cliffhanger ended.
Here is the regional view
That is heavy snow, down to 6,500 feet! I would caution you not to get too excited yet. It is a long way away and a lot could change. I really need to have that talk with myself…
My next update is Monday, thanks for following and supporting the site!