10/5 Tuesday 3:10 pm
The latest model runs are definitely favoring the western portions of the forecast area. They are also slowing down the start of the precipitation until midnight. I am not so sure about that. I would stick with the 9 pm to midnight onset, earlier would not surprise me. The radar is showing much of Arizona lit up. Much of the state remains under severe thunderstorm warnings and watches. We may see a few storms fire, but I expect most of our rain will be stratiform (gentle rain).
At the moment, this looks like it will less impactful than our last system. There are still differences among the models, especially the current high-resolution models.
Here are the latest precipitation maps.
Euro
GFS
Canadian
German
Here are the last 2 runs from the short-term high-resolution US model NAM 3km. As you see it is still struggling to pinpoint the storm track.
Morning run
Afternoon run
Enjoy the nice sleeping rain.
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