Weekend Outlook

10/7 Thursday 6:45 am

There is going to be a lot of weather to talk about for the next 6 days and I am happy about that! There are still significant model differences for this weekend. I don’t want to muddy the waters between this weekend and next week. There is too much data to cover. This post will tackle this weekend. This afternoon I will talk about next week. The models still agree that next week will be fun.

This weekend is starting to look like a practice run for next week. The Euro is advertising a slightly lower snow level this weekend. The storm track is still under review among the models. Yesterday the Euro started filling in the precipitation across the forecast area. It also showed significant snow at Wolf Creek. Overnight, the Euro backed off the major snow event, other than that, it remained consistent with the previous run showing light rain and basically an unsettled weekend.

I have low confidence in the GFS, but that is not unusual for me. The Canadian is running a little warmer than the Euro. The Canadian is always one run or so behind the Euro. In the past, I have referred to the Canadian as the Euro’s little brother. It is like the little brother that strives to be like his big brother but is always in his shadow.

I don’t have high confidence in any of these models for this weekend. I feel better than yesterday, but that is not saying much. The Euro looks the most believable. Just to reiterate, I am pretty confident with next the model agreement for next week. Here is the latest full run of the Euro put into motion for this weekend. This begins Friday afternoon and ends Monday morning.

I mentioned yesterday’s run showing the big snow at Wolf Creek this weekend. Here is that run.

Yesterday’s Euro

The main difference between these two model runs is the track of an area of low pressure in New Mexico. Yesterday’s run tracks that low right into southern Colorado. Last night’s run keeps that low south in central New Mexico. This is very interesting and bears watching.

Here are the precipitation forecasts from the Euro, Canadian, and GFS for this weekend.

Latest Euro liquid

Latest Euro snow

Wednesday’s Euro liquid

Wednesday’s Euro snow

As I said earlier, this bears watching.

Latest GFS liquid

Latest GFS snow

Latest Canadian liquid

That resembles yesterday’s Euro

Latest Canadian snow

The plot thickens…

I should have the next update covering next week out by 2 pm. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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