Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories Across The Forecast Area.

10/11 Monday 3:30 pm

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1240 PM MDT MON OCT 11 2021

COZ068-121300-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0009.211012T0600Z-211013T0000Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
1240 PM MDT MON OCT 11 2021

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 12 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 65 MPH.

* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET (including Wolf Creek Pass)

* WHEN…FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE DAMAGE. 

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
234 PM MDT MON OCT 11 2021

COZ019-120700-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WW.Y.0027.211012T0600Z-211013T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0005.211012T0600Z-211013T0000Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON AND RICO
234 PM MDT MON OCT 11 2021

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 9000 FEET. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT ACROSS SOUTH FACING PEAKS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH.

* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY.

COZ018-UTZ028-120700-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0027.211012T0600Z-211013T0000Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF TELLURIDE
234 PM MDT MON OCT 11 2021

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 9000 FEET. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

* WHERE…IN UTAH, LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS. IN COLORADO, NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES.

I like what they have done here. I like the move to a WSW (winter storm warning) for Silverton and the SW San Juans. I like keeping Telluride in an advisory but saying it could hit warning criteria. I like Pueblo NWS’s call on Wolf Creek, but they are probably way too low with the accumulations.

Very little has changed since this morning. The front has not moved very much, it still appears to be stretched across NW Utah. Surface maps were indicating the front was stationary. It looks like there has been a little more movement in the last 6 hours. Temperatures are running 20-25 degrees colder behind the front.

I have loaded in the snowfall forecasts in this post. It is important to remember that these models default to 10 to 1 SWE. This means for every inch of liquid you get 10 inches of snow. This is not your average early fall snowstorm.  By late Tuesday morning, SWE ratios (snow to liquid ratios) at and above 8,800 feet should be about 15 to 1. At 8,000 feet they will probably average 12 to 1. So I threw those snow maps in there, but for a more accurate read, use the liquid-equivalent maps and do the math for your location.  Here are the precipitation maps for the first storm ending early Wednesday morning.

GFS liquid- I have very little faith in this forecast for the lower elevations. The forecast goes against our terrain in the low and mid-elevations.

GFS snow

Canadian liquid-Of all of this morning’s model runs, I like what this model is doing the best. I think it is just a bit too bullish for Pagosa.

Canadian snow

Euro-I am not crazy about this one either, but it is better than the GFS.

Euro snow

German-I like this run as well as the Canadian. It makes a lot of sense.

Now for the second storm Thursday into Friday. I am indifferent on these model runs because I expect the amounts to change between now and Thursday. One thing I do not expect to change is it will favor Telluride, Ouray Silverton, and Red Mountain.

Canadian

Canadian snow

GFS

GFS snow

Euro-I changed my mind, this run of the Euro for the second storm is doing exactly what it should with northerly flow. What may change are the amounts.

Next update Tuesday morning, I am looking forward to the snow reports. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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