10/11 Monday 8:30 am
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Silverton, and Rico
346 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021
“…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM MDT TUESDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET…
* WHAT…Heavy snow expected above 9000 feet. Total snow
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts up to a foot
across higher south facing peaks. Winds gusting as high as 50
* WHERE…Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
* WHEN…From midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Tuesday.
* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. Strong winds could
cause tree damage.”
No surprises in that, it is pretty straightforward and consistent with everything the models have been advertising.
The cold front is right where the models thought it would be this morning.
There have been some subtle inconsistencies between the last two Euro model runs. I am going to wait until the morning model runs to come out before I post the latest precipitation maps.
The models are in better agreement today that another disturbance is going to come through on Thursday. It will be much smaller but it will be a reinforcing shot of cold air. It will also bring additional snow to Telluride, Ouray, Red Mountain and Silverton. At this point, it looks like it will only deliver a heavy dusting to areas south of Silverton.
As I mentioned yesterday, I included the Thursday system totals in the precipitation maps I posted Sunday morning. This afternoon I will break those systems up and look at the totals for each system separately. The models have been pretty consistent with their precipitation forecast for the last week, so I don’t expect things to change too much.
It still looks the first flakes will fly in the high country around or just after midnight tonight. The snow level still looks like it will fall rapidly from 8,000 to 6,500 feet before noon. The rain will change to snow in the lower elevations from west to east. Mid-elevation areas may see a mix first thing in the morning with all snow likely before 9 am.
Here is how that looks on the maps.
I will have my afternoon update out before 4 pm. Thanks for following and supporting the site!