Afternoon Storm Update

Tuesday 10/12 1:50 pm

As is often the case, there were many discrepancies among surface map providers this morning. It turned out Wunderground had the best placement for the cold front and the parent low. The cold front finally made it into Colorado around 9 am. The parent low is still spinning over southern Utah. WPC had indicated that the cold front passed Durango at 6 am. In actuality, that was a short wave trough ahead of the cold front. I was in Durango at 10:30 this morning when I saw the updated surface map from Wunderground. I emailed it to myself so I could share it with you this afternoon.

The blue line with triangles is the cold front. The southern portion is leaning back (negative tilted), which means it is strengthening. The blue and red line extending out of the cold front is indicating that a portion of the front is stalled. It is leaning forward (positively tilted) which means it is weakening. All of the dotted brown lines are shortwave troughs, most have their own area of low pressure associated with them. This is definitely a complex system.

Most mid-elevation areas below 8,000 feet have not received significant accumulating snow. It has been too warm in the lower elevations for much more than rain. I have not received many snow reports. The last report I got from Silverton was 10″ at 10 am. I also got an earlier report of 7″ at Mountain Village. The automated PWS (personal weather stations) don’t show snow, so I rely 100% on the public for snow reports.

Here is the latest surface map from WU.

I tried to extrapolate the low location from the near-live satellite view.

It is pretty similar to Wunderground.

Where that slow-moving parent low tracks from here will determine who (if anyone) gets snow tonight. As it passes winds will be more favorable for the northern portions of the forecast area. If the low tracks a little further east, precipitation will continue or redevelop over southern portions of the forecast area. Models are notoriously horrible at predicting this. So, we will have to wait and see.

 

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