10/14 Thursday 8:50 am
Since my last post, the models have taken a slightly more southerly track with the short wave trough which is currently stretched from southeast Utah into west-central Colorado. It is draped across the Grand Junction area.
I circled it in black.
It will be moving east throughout the day and will bring 2 to 8 inches of snow across northern portions of the forecast area. There may be some upside surprises up to a foot between Ouray and Red Mountain. Silverton ski area could also do well. Telluride and Silverton (town) will likely see 2 to 5 inches of snow.
There is a lot of uncertainty about the track this disturbance will take. There is not a lot of moisture with it, but as I said there will be some surprises.
If the system drops a little further south, odds are that more of the southern portions of the forecast area will be affected. I would be very surprised if anyone south of 160 will be affected. I do not expect accumulations here, but some brief snow squalls may accompany the passage of the disturbance. We have seen those happen before. You go from cloudy to what looks like a blizzard for 5 minutes, then the sun comes out.
The models have struggled with overnight low temperatures all week. Today is no exception, some models are calling for the coldest overnight lows of the season by tomorrow morning. We’ll see.
There is no agreement whatsoever among the models for what will happen Monday through Wednesday of next week. I will be tracking that and posting a closer look at those scenarios starting Friday morning.
I look forward to hearing reports of heavy snow or snow squalls passing through. Thanks for following and supporting the site!