A Cool Start

Friday 10/15 8:45 am

Low temperatures are the big story this morning. Overnight low temperatures ranged from 20 to 25 in the lower elevations. Most mid-elevation areas were hovering around 20 degrees. Higher elevations ranged from 10 to 18 degrees.

Yesterday afternoon, as expected, a few snow squalls came through areas north of 160 resulting in light accumulations and even a little convection. Here was what it looked like near Glacier yesterday afternoon around 4 pm.

I did not hear from any followers in the northern portion of the forecast area, but it looks like Telluride picked up close to 4 more inches on their snow stake. Here is how that looks this morning.

This weekend we will have nice fall weather. Temperatures will rebound slightly with seasonal overnight lows and high temperatures running slightly below average.

The models are still out of phase for next week and beyond. The Euro is trying to bring in a small disturbance from the south Monday morning. The other models are not seeing it yet. They are in better agreement with a disorganized system entering the north half of the state on Tuesday. There is not a lot of run-to-run consistency on the placement of that system.

It looks like things will settle down for a few days after that. Around the 23rd things could get interesting. I mentioned the MJO forecast from the European model the other day. The model is still showing the MJO entering phase one. The operational model is responding right on cue by showing a large wet system entering the west. The GFS is not showing this. Until there is better model agreement I don’t want to get too deep into the weeds with that one. However, here is a glimpse of what the models are showing for day 10 (10/24).



GFS (what storm?)

Stay tuned…

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