Sunday Update

Sunday 1024 8:15 am

Monday will be the warmest day of the week. Winds will gust from 40 to 50 mph across the 550 passes Monday afternoon. Lower gusts from 20 to 35 mph will occur in the lower and mid-elevations.

Weather nerds will appreciate this broad cyclonic area of low pressure off of the Pacific coast churning moisture into Northern California.

Here it is on the surface map.

Timing still looks good for precipitation to start between 6 am and 10 am Tuesday morning. At the moment, it still looks like the system will be a quick mover. It should depart the area by Wednesday morning. Here is how the Euro sees it coming through. This is from 12 am Tuesday through noon on Wednesday.

Snow levels will start above 10,000 feet but will quickly drop to around 9,000 feet. During the heaviest precipitation, the snow levels will remain high. As the system departs the area snow levels will drop significantly. Areas under 8,500 feet will get mostly rain.

As I mentioned yesterday, the models have increased their totals from when we first started tracking this.  I want to start with the Euro and the WPC models because they are easier to read with one of my model service providers.

All of the models do a good job distinguishing the cities in Southwest Colorado. However, only one of my providers distinguishes the city of Durango from the airport. They do it with two models only, the European and the WPC.

These 2 models also distinguish Wolf Creek Pass from Pagosa Springs.

There is quite a difference between these two forecasts. I have noticed that the WPC at times is very heavily weighted to the GFS model. This is likely because they are both under the NOAA umbrella.

Here is the GFS, as always I think it is struggling to see the lower elevation totals.

Here is the Canadian. For these model runs I prefer a blend of the Euro with the Canadian. With its latest run, the Euro was likely a little too high with the lower elevations totals, and too low with the higher elevations.

Canadian

I expect we will see a Winter Storm Watch posted either late today or early tomorrow morning. It should be for areas above 9,000 feet beginning early Tuesday morning.

My next update will be Monday afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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