Cold Rain And Snow Tuesday

Monday 10/25 3:40 pm

Very little has changed since my last update. Most areas will start to see precipitation by sunrise tomorrow. Northern portions of the forecast area (Telluride, Red Mountain, and Ouray) are going to start off with unfavorable flow but things will ramp up as the day goes on. Snow levels will drop from 10,000 feet to around 8,500 feet fairly quickly tomorrow. The best accumulations will be above 9,000 feet. I promised I would address snow forecasts this afternoon. I will get to that after the maps.

I like the consistency with the Euro. I am a little surprised with the higher totals it is forecasting from Durango to Hermosa. I think the model may be spending too much time with southerly flow. That would also explain the discrepancy between Pagosa and Wolf Creek. I like how the model shows favorable flow from midday on for Telluride and Rico. Ouray and Red Mountain will see the best conditions from mid-afternoon and into the evening.

The GFS usually moves the storms across the forecast area too quickly. It may have too much northerly flow.

Similar to the Euro, the Canadian is showing more southwest and westerly flow. Once again, I like a blend of the Canadian and the Euro.

Here is where I am at for snow totals:

2 to 4 inches–Ouray

4 to 6 inches–Mayday

6 to 8 inches–Telluride in town, Silverton in town, Purgatory (snow stake), and Rico

8 to 12 inches–Telluride (snow stake), Wolf Creek base, all of the 550 passes

I will update tomorrow, I am just not sure what time. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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