Winter Weather Advisories Issued

10/25/21 4:40 am

I think this is a good call, I know they are worried about snow levels, but I think 550 from Lime Creek up to Red Mountain is going to be a complete mess tomorrow!

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
302 AM MDT MON OCT 25 2021

COZ018-019-252145-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0029.211026T0600Z-211027T0600Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON AND RICO
302 AM MDT MON OCT 25 2021

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY NIGHT ABOVE 9500 FEET…

* WHAT…SNOW…MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES…CAN BE EXPECTED. SNOW WILL REACH VALLEY BOTTOMS BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 9500 FEET. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS ELEVATION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 55 MPH AT TIMES WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT. BLOWING SNOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.

This just came out for Wolf Creek, I think they may be one category too low on precipitation accumulation. I will talk more about that this afternoon.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
404 AM MDT MON OCT 25 2021

COZ068-251815-
/O.NEW.KPUB.WW.Y.0030.211026T1200Z-211027T0600Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
404 AM MDT MON OCT 25 2021 


…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY NIGHT…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET COUNTY.  * WHEN…FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE OVER WOLF CREEK PASS. 

I had not planned on doing an update this morning. I am up so why not? ‘Tis the season… The models continue to show moderate amounts of precipitation for the forecast area with the incoming system.

The latest model runs show that the higher elevations may start to see precipitation starting to fall around 3 am. The entire forecast area should get going before 9 am. I will take another look at that this afternoon.

Here are the latest total precipitation model runs. Yesterday I said I thought a blend of the Canadian and Euro would be the best approach. Overnight the Euro corrected to something very similar to that.

Euro

GFS

Canadian–this model sees a little more southwest and westerly flow than the others. I will have to keep an eye on that.

German

 

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