Model Bust? Maybe, Maybe Not So Much

10/26/21 Tuesday 1 pm

One thing I have learned with these split systems is they don’t behave exactly how they are supposed when they come through. It would not be difficult to hit some of the low and mid-elevation totals the models were projecting.

The mountain snow totals are an entirely different story. It would be quite a tall order to reach the minimums, especially for Purgatory. That being said, the system strengthened as it went past 550.

Cooler air is in place and the system appears to have stalled slightly in western Archuleta County. Precipitation is wrapping back around into the forecast area. There is even some light wet snow falling down 7,400 feet.

I am going to let this run its course and see if the models end up “right for the wrong reasons” in portions of the forecast area.

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