10/27/21 Wednesday 8:25 am
Wrap-around moisture provided an extra boost to the mountain snow later in the day on Tuesday. Telluride ended up with 10″ on the snow stake. Silverton piled up 7 inches in town. I had a single report of 15 inches on Red Mountain Pass. Purgatory does not report yet, but their snow stake is usually less than what they report. Apparently, their official measuring spot is not at the snow stake. My guess would be 6 inches since the snow stake is at 4 inches. Wolf Creek should report a little later but I am guessing 8 to 10 inches.
In the lower and mid-elevations the precipitation totals were spotty, but generally ranged from 0.25 inches to 0.50 inches. The sensors don’t compute SWE (snow water equivalent) so the totals were probably higher in some areas above 7,000 feet.
The models handled the snow levels better with this storm. But, this guy didn’t. I added some elevation to what the models were showing me because the last couple of times they didn’t do well with that parameter. Going forward, I will take what they give me.
Speaking of going forward, the Euro and Canadian are going forward and forecasting a very stormy week to start November. The GFS shows nothing at all. Nothing…
The Euro shows the first wave of precipitation coming in Sunday night for northern portions of the forecast area. It shows several reinforcing waves throughout the week providing ample snow to the mountains as cold air back doors into Colorado from the midwest.
The Canadian is showing a “perfect storm”. It does not get started until Tuesday. The Canadian is much more aggressive with the back door cold front. It works the cold air mass all of the way through the state and into Utah. Then it shows ample moisture pouring in over the cold air. The result would be 2 to 4 feet of snow in mountains, with 1 to 3 feet of snow in the lower and mid-elevations. As I said, a perfect scenario.
Do I believe it? Nope. Not yet. We have not had one of those perfect scenarios work out for a couple of years. If the GFS starts to look more like the Euro, and the Euro starts to look more like the Canadian I will start to get encouraged.
It is fun to look at though. Do you want to see it? One condition, remember that I am NOT a believer yet. Also, remember that this fantasy could end in about 3 hours when the morning run of the Canadian comes out.
Again, this is all fantasy land at this point, but you never know…
My next update will be Thursday, thanks for following and supporting the site!