Mega Coaster Ride

10/28/21 Thursday 1:20 pm

Last week I was talking about a model roller coaster ride based on the models’ fluctuations. If last week was a roller coaster, this week is a mega coaster, or hyper coaster, or giga coaster (those last two are real, I looked them up)!

As expected, the Canadian model quickly changed its mind on the next model run. Interestingly enough the GFS is now showing a couple of waves of precipitation coming through next week, with a more significant system next weekend (11/5-11/7)  and into the following week.

The Canadian is showing a wave coming through on Tuesday and another on Friday. Both are light precipitation events, which mainly affect the northern portions of the forecast area.

The Euro is now showing a more active week with systems coming through every couple of days starting on Tuesday. It is showing some decent accumulations.

When I flip the channel and look at the ensemble families of models, it does not really help. There is just too much uncertainty with the placement and track of the trough next week.

For your viewing pleasure here are model maps in motion. You too can experience the model discrepancies I have been combing through. These start Sunday 10/31 and end Sunday 11/7




On a positive note, at least 2 of these 3 models are showing decent accumulations over the 10 day period, they just arrive at the totals in a completely different manner.



My next update will be Friday afternoon, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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