An Un-Spooktacular Forecast

Sunday 10/31/21 7:25 am

For me, the best thing about Halloween is that it signals the time change. Fall back is one of my favorite events because I am usually up early every day. Models do not set their clocks back, so that means I get data an hour earlier.

As far as Halloween weather goes, well, it is usually boring around here. It is rare to get something fun to talk about this time of year. We had a couple of systems drop far enough south to give us a little snow in our mountains. Now, the storm track will stay just far enough north to keep things pretty non-eventful around here for a while.

Do I think that is an indication of what our winter will look like? Not at all. I think this is a typical fall weather pattern for Southwest Colorado. I will have more to say on winter eventually, I am still trying to wrap my head around a few things. I will tell you that some of the conditions that people expect to bring us a dry winter are the same things that I am looking at that could bring us an average or slightly above average snowfall winter.

Back to the short term,  there may be clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or a random flake of snow or two this afternoon for northern portions of the forecast area. Attention then shifts to Tuesday. From Tuesday to Wednesday there is a slight chance we could see a little better chance of precipitation for the northern portions of the forecast area.

The models are still not aligned on the precipitation totals for this. Even after I gave them the day off yesterday. For now, let’s just say there could be some light impacts to travel over the 550 passes on Tuesday into Wednesday and leave it at that. I have low confidence in any of the model’s precipitation forecasts at the moment. They are showing everything in between 0 to 6 inches of snow.

My next update will be Monday afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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