11/16/21 Tuesday 1:20 pm
What a difference! The outlook was pretty boring Sunday morning when I posted last. Then the later day runs started showing a completely different picture for next week. By Monday all of the ensemble model families plus the latest runs of the GFS and Canadian were showing us flipping into an active weather pattern before mid-week (next week). Today the individual latest run of the Euro is coming on board and the Euro ensemble members are coming in a little heavier.
Most of the models are showing the activity getting started late on Tuesday or early Wednesday with several waves delivering a couple of days of precipitation. They show the earlier waves keeping the snow at or above 8,000 but dropping to the lower levels by Thanksgiving.
It is very encouraging to see agreement across the ensemble models. I don’t want to jump on the hype train just yet, but I am becoming optimistic. Enough so that I am going to go back to posting daily.
I received a couple of emails asking me about a forecast for the lunar eclipse overnight Thursday/very early Friday morning. At the moment, two of my three cloud models are showing nearly full cloud cover. I will update on that each day for those who are interested.
Here are the current precipitation forecasts from the ensemble family models.
Canadian ensembles
Liquid
Snow
GFS ensembles
Liquid
Snow
Euro Ensembles
Liquid
Snow
Sometimes (not always) the ensemble runs lag the individual model runs because it is one model run instead of the average of 20 to 50 model members.
In the case of the GFS and Canadian which were the first models to pick up on this change for next week, there is a huge difference in totals.
Canadian
Liquid
Snow
GFS
Liquid
Snow
Let’s hope this trend continues, but for now, I am sticking with the ensembles for a few more days.
My next update will be Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!