Third Look–Thanksgiving Week

11/19/21 Friday 9:30 am

For this weekend, there is a slight chance of light snow or flurries from Silverton to Ouray on Saturday afternoon into the evening. Most of the activity will occur further north out of the forecast area, along and north of I-70.

The models are still trying to decide what to do with disturbances coming in from the Pacific Northwest and the track of a potential cut-off low-pressure system coming in from the southwest. As I have mentioned, these are basically hit or miss. At the moment, the GFS is calling it a miss. But the Euro, Canadian and German models are all calling for a more favorable track.

They are saying that snow and rain will move in front of the low from the southwest on Tuesday afternoon, with snow falling on and off over the next few days. Not much snow but a welcome change before winter sets in.

The GFS tends to move systems too quickly. Lately, the operational model of the GFS has been horrible in all respects. This time of year it can be very destructive and perilous to commodity markets with runs that vary in temperature forecasts by double digits from run to run (every 6 hours). In my last post, I showed how much the precipitation forecast for next week changed over a 12 hour period. For now, I am not going to be relying on the GFS as much until it proves itself.

Here are the precipitation forecasts from the operational models of the Euro, Canadian, and German models. The Euro and Canadian are through Sunday afternoon, the German model’s run ends Friday afternoon (180 hours is its limit).

Euro liquid

 

Euro snow

Canadian liquid

Canadian snow

German liquid (through Friday)

 

My next update will be Saturday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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