Two Models Are Making The Most Of The Storm

11/21/21 Sunday 6 am

Yesterday, the wave passing to our north brought some flurries much further south than any of the models indicated, which was a nice surprise.

According to the German and European weather models, we are going to see some precipitation from the SW storm arriving late Tuesday. These two models have been the most consistent lately. The last three runs of the Euro model and the last four runs of the German model have shown a favorable storm track for our forecast area.

Here are the last four runs from the German model.

German liquid latest run

6 hours earlier

12 hours earlier

18 hours earlier

Here are the last two runs of the Euro, cropped for our forecast area.

Latest-liquid precipitation



6 hours earlier-liquid

6 hours earlier-snow

I did say the last three runs of the Euro model were consistent in tracking the storm over our area. The Euro runs four times per day, just like the GFS and German models. However, all models have different run-length times. For example, the GFS runs four times per day 384 hours into the future. The Euro runs four times per day, but it alternates run-length times. The first run is 240 hours, the second is 90 hours, the third is 240 hours and the fourth is 90 hours. The German model alternates between 180 hours and 120 hours.

So the third Euro run was right in the middle of the storm at 5 am Wednesday morning when the model ended at 90 hours. Here is what the model was showing at that time.

I am getting my car washed on Tuesday so we should be in good shape…

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