Tuesday Morning Update

11/23/21 Tuesday 9 am

Moisture is streaming into the upper levels of the atmosphere ahead of the main weather maker for our forecast area that is currently in Western Arizona.

The NWS did not feel that advisories would be needed for this system so they issued a SWS (Special Weather Statement) due to increased travel for the holiday.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
150 AM MST TUE NOV 23 2021

COZ010-018-019-240000-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ASPEN, VAIL, SNOWMASS, TELLURIDE, OURAY,
LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
150 AM MST TUE NOV 23 2021

…SOME SLICK ROADS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND VAIL PASS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING…

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOWFALL TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHILE AMOUNTS ARE SUB-ADVISORY, 2 TO 4 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE 550 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE SAN JUANS WHILE 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED ON I-70 HEADING EAST FROM VAIL UP TO VAIL PASS.

IF YOU’RE PLANNING ON TRAVELLING THROUGH THESE AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOWY AND SLUSHY ROADS. GIVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION AND REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN.

All of the models have sped up the onset of precipitation. They are suggesting that the higher elevation areas could see snow showers starting around 2 pm, we’ll see. The models are also showing light showers developing across mid and lower elevation areas late this afternoon or early evening. Light rain should change over to snow later tonight.

The lower and medium-resolution models are suggesting snowfall totals that would resemble the amounts in the SWS (2 to 4 inches).

Here are the last two latest runs from the European model.

Latest liquid equivalent