Still On Track!

12/4/21 Saturday 7 am

Another 24 hours of exciting model runs! I will get to that in a minute…

I was reading an interesting (if you are a complete nerd like me) article from a weather service I subscribe to about the coming cold from mid-December into January. The writer researched years that were similar climatologically in the past. These are referred to as analog years. I took those years and did a little research of my own.

There were 9 winters that he came up with that I could find data on. I looked at those winters for our forecast area and was very pleased with what I saw.

In Durango, four of those years were average snowfall years. Two were below average. Two were above average. Of those two above years, one was the all-time record snowfall year of 1978-79.

In Telluride, there were two average snowfall years. Two were below average. Five were above years. Of those five, one was the third snowiest on record. The other was the fourth snowiest on record.

Here is the raw data output from the Euro extended model showing the average temperature anomalies (negative) starting December 15th ending January 16th.

The model is showing daily temperature composites in our forecast area averaging 3 to 5 degrees below normal for the 32 day period!

As I mentioned earlier, the models are still on board for a significant storm later next week. The little system coming through late Monday into Tuesday is not going to be a big deal. It may be a little bit of a nuisance over the passes, but overall nothing to get excited about.

Here are the latest model runs showing the precipitation mainly from the storm late next week. The Euro is still unusually stingy compared to the other two models.

GFS latest run liquid equivalent

GFS latest run snowfall at 10-1 ratio

GFS previous run 10-1 snowfall

Canadian model latest run liquid equivalent

Canadian snowfall at 10-1 ratio

Canadian previous run snowfall at 10-1 ratio

Latest Euro liquid equivalent

Euro latest snowfall 10-1 ratio

Euro previous snowfall 10-1 ratio

The last two runs of the Euro still look good for mid and higher elevation areas, but not quite as much fun for the lower elevations of the southern forecast area.

My next update will be Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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3 thoughts on “Still On Track!

  1. Judith I Farnam

    I was pregnant and working nights at Mercy the winter of 78-79. It was definitely a winter I will never forget.
    One morning I was the driver when we left work. We had a car pool and had to drop 3 people off on the way home to Bayfield. This was the days of rear wheel drive vehicles. It was snowing so hard and roads not good. They could not keep up at all. Blizzard warnings out! I successfully dropped off everyone and then could not make it up our long driveway. None of us got back to work that night. COuld not see a t all. My car was buried by the time this snow storm ended. Took me hours to dig out.

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