An Early Look At The Next Storm

12/10/21 Friday 1 pm

If you are new here, I have to tell you that this may be only the second time I can remember in 13 years that Marvel and Ignacio received more snow than most of Durango (including Timberline and Skyridge), as well as the lower portions of Hermosa. Sorry about that. Most of my other forecasts verified. I shared with a number of you that my mid-elevation and resort forecasts were, in my mind, pretty conservative, that turned out to be the case.

I am going to jump right in. A few days ago I teased everyone with a quick look at next week’s storm. The models have remained fairly consistent day to day on bringing this system in.

Here is the Euro showing a small disturbance coming in from the south in advance of the main storm system on Tuesday. Notice the storm to the west with the long fetch of Pacific moisture.

Fast forward to Wednesday morning and I will put the maps in motion for 24 hours.

Here are the liquid-equivalent precipitation forecasts from the models.

GFS

Euro

Canadian

Too early to worry. We just went through this. The GFS did a great job on liquid, early on last time. We will see how it does with this one. My confidence is high on a big snowstorm, but only because I have an appointment that I can’t miss in Cortez Wednesday morning. My snowblower is demanding a new contract if the next storm does not have some drier snow…

If I don’t post Saturday morning it is only because there is nothing new, good or bad, from the models. If that is the case I will do a model update on Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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