12/12/21 Sunday 1 pm
I re-read my morning update. It is obvious I am pulling for the lower elevations to get a good shot of snow. I feel like I neglected the higher elevation areas. Based on a couple of emails I got, I must have given the impression that this is not going to be a good storm for the areas above 8,000 feet. That is not the case.
Here is the latest WPC model run showing the total liquid-equivalent precipitation. This run makes a lot more sense than what I was showing with operational versions of the big three models.
Based on this blended model run, Purgatory would get 12 to 16 inches. Wolf Creek could get 16 to 20 inches and Telluride could get 7 to 10 inches.
As far as the mid-elevations go, I am most confident with Upper Durango Hills, Aspen Trails, Trew Creek, Lemon, Tween Lakes, and Vallecito. My early estimate for those areas is for 10 to 16 inches of snow.
The back of my mind concern for all areas below 7,500 is not that a lot of the precipitation will be rain/snow mix. It is the flash freezing that happens as the trough passes the area. I drove to Mancos this morning and there were still areas of black ice and some snow and ice-packed roads. At the moment, the Euro is showing a 14-degree temperature drop over 4 hours in the lower elevation areas. From 4 to 5 am the temp drops 7 degrees. This could cause a huge mess and likely lead to a bunch more traffic accidents.
The temperatures in the mountains will stay below freezing all night, but they won’t be spared the temperature drop. In most locations, I am showing a 2 hour 12 degree temperature drop as the front passes.
I will be updating twice a day (at least) Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Stay tuned!