A Dangerous Storm Is On The Way

12/12/21 Monday 3:45 pm

The storm that will be arriving starting late tomorrow is poised to bring very hazardous conditions by Wednesday morning.  For the lower elevations, the dangerous conditions won’t be because of a lot of snow. There will be some snow. However, the 60 mph wind gusts and the abrupt drop in temperatures will bring very hazardous driving conditions and flash freezing across the roads and highways.

The higher elevation areas above 8,500 feet will have moderate to heavy snow, with wind gusts up to 80 mph as the front passes Wednesday morning. The significant temperature drop in those areas will increase the snow ratios dramatically. They will increase from approximately 12 to 1 at 3 am, to 15 or 20 to 1 by 6 am. Combining that with 80 mph wind gusts and travel on the passes will become impossible,  I will be surprised if they will be able to keep the passes open.

Here are the latest Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
231 PM MST MON DEC 13 2021

COZ019-140700-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0006.211214T2100Z-211216T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0007.211215T0000Z-211216T0000Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
231 PM MST MON DEC 13 2021

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 80 MPH NEAR AND ABOVE THE TREELINE.

* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE.
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. 

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
317 PM MST MON DEC 13 2021

COZ068-140630-
/O.UPG.KPUB.WS.A.0011.211215T0000Z-211216T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.W.0011.211215T0000Z-211216T0000Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET- INCLUDING WOLF CREEK PASS
317 PM MST MON DEC 13 2021

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 18 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 80 MPH.

* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.

* WHEN…FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVELING OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN ROADWAYS, INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND CUMBRES PASSES, COULD BE VERY DANGEROUS TO IMPOSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. VERY STRONG WINDS
COULD CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.

COZ017-018-140700-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0034.211215T0000Z-211216T0000Z/
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
231 PM MST MON DEC 13 2021

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS  70 MPH NEAR AND ABOVE THE TREELINE.

* WHERE…UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE TOPS.

I like the guidance on all of these highlights. I will know better tomorrow, but from everything I am seeing, I would expect 16 to 24 inches at Wolf Creek.

Here are the latest model runs. The Euro is back out to lunch. After one sensible run, it is struggling again.

WPC

GFS

 

NAM 3km

Euro

I am showing the Euro, but it is wrong.

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4 thoughts on “A Dangerous Storm Is On The Way

  1. Bryon Powell

    So, you’re telling me I should probably cancel my midday Wednesday dentist appointment in Durango? (Says the guy in Silverton.) 😉

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