12/13/21 Monday 10 am
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
420 AM MST MON DEC 13 2021
COZ019-132145-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.A.0006.211214T2100Z-211216T0000Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON AND RICO
420 AM MST MON DEC 13 2021
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 8500 FEET…
* WHAT…THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 70 MPH NEAR AND ABOVE THE TREELINE.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BECOME VERY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
401 AM MST MON DEC 13 2021
COZ068-131915-
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.A.0011.211215T0000Z-211216T0000Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-WOLF CREEK PASS
401 AM MST MON DEC 13 2021
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 75 MPH.
* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET COUNTY.
* WHEN…FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS…TRAVELING OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN ROADWAYS, INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND CUMBRES PASSES, COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
If the wind forecast verifies, traveling over the passes will be impossible and there is a very good chance they will close the passes. If the temperature forecast verifies, the roads and highways will become skating rinks. If you are supposed to travel over the 550 passes or Wolf Creek pass Wednesday morning before 10 am, make alternate plans!
Overall, the models are looking more realistic this morning. I have seen a trend with the Euro, GFS, and Canadian that I like. The precipitation accumulation pattern is stretching west of where it had been in its previous runs. I hope that will continue.
Here was yesterday’s Euro.
Here is the current run.
Here was yesterday’s Canadian when it was having a bad day
Here is the current run.
Here was the overnight GFS.
Here is the current run this morning.
So the medium resolution models are looking better.
Here are some of the high-resolution models that came out this morning.
WPC
Here is the NAM 3km
I usually only post this model the day of the storm, I would think these high elevation totals will come down a bit, we’ll see.
Here is the same model showing its snowfall forecast in inches.
We will wait and see what tomorrow brings from this model.
The models continue to favor areas above 8,000 feet for snowfall. The models are just starting to come into a slightly better agreement but they are still a ways off.
The models continue to show a dramatic decrease in temperatures. The GFS, Euro and Canadian are all showing a 9-degree temperature drop from 5 am to 6 am Wednesday morning. They are currently showing a 12-degree drop between 5 am and 7 am Wednesday in most mountain areas.
My next update will be this afternoon before 4 pm. Thanks for following and supporting the site.