Early Afternoon Model Update

12/14/21 Monday 1:25 pm

Here is the latest surface map showing the location of the incoming system.

The pre-frontal disturbance this morning left some instability in its wake. If the temperatures drop a little we could get some more pre-frontal snow or rain/snow mix for the lower elevations. The models show light precipitation re-developing after 8 pm. They show temperatures only varying a couple to a few degrees between now and 3 am. The Canadian model was the only accurate model for temperatures so far today. The GFS was way too warm and missed its 11 am target by 7 degrees at DRO. Conversely, it was way too cold for Telluride.

Needless to say, this storm is even more difficult to forecast than the last one. Here are the latest models since my last update.

GFS with Wolf Creek details

GFS with Pagosa details

WPC

Canadian

Euro-I still can’t figure out what it is doing…

I still feel the big story will be the hazardous driving conditions early tomorrow morning and the heavy snow above 8,500 feet.

I will try to tackle some of the snowfall forecasts in my next update. It should be out between 4 and 5 pm. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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