Next Week’s Storm–First Look

12/16/21 Thursday 10 am

Telluride ended up within the forecast range with 7 inches. Purgatory ended up with 10 inches and Wolf Creek 14 inches. While Purgatory and Wolf Creek came in slightly under my expectations, it still was a pretty good second storm.

Telluride, Ouray, and the 550 passes may get a heavy dusting of snow by tomorrow morning. A few flurries may make it down to Purgatory.

All of the models see some type of disturbance(s) working through our forecast area next week.

I will put the models in motion, then explain what I am seeing.


The Canadian shows light snow starting Wednesday night (December 22 nd) around 8 pm. Snow falls overnight into Thursday morning with a lull late Thursday. Snow redevelops Thursday night into Friday morning (December 24th). Warmer air moves in and the snow levels retreat to the 8,000-foot level during the day, then fall overnight. Snow continues until the middle of the day December 25th.

Here are the early precipitation totals from Canadian.

The Euro is slower with the onset of the storm and quicker to move it out. It starts Thursday morning December 23rd.

I am going to skip the details because the Euro is not showing a significant event. However, it is showing an all snow event.

Here are the precipitation totals from the Euro.

I am still a bit gun shy of the Euro with its antics prior to and during the last storm.

The GFS shows a very similar scenario to the Canadian model.

Like the Canadian, the GFS starts the precipitation late on Wednesday. It shows multiple waves of precipitation, starting as all snow. Late Thursday the snow levels rise to 8,000 feet until Friday when they drop again with snow at all elevations. The snow moves out midday on Saturday (December 25th).

It is too early to worry. It is also too early to get too excited about the scenarios that the GFS and Canadian are portraying. I am happy to take questions about holiday travel. Travel anytime before Wednesday looks good. It is too early to ask about the 22nd through the 26th. Hopefully, I will have a better handle on those dates on Sunday.

My next update will be Friday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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