12/18/21 Saturday 7:40 am
While the Euro has joined the other models with high expectations for a storm next week, there are still issues to resolve regarding timing and snow levels. By the way, as the MJO moves into phase 8 in January we will be in a colder pattern and I think that will resolve our issues with the mixed precipitation in the lower elevations.
Now that there is something to look at let’s put the maps back in motion with the three operational models.
Euro–this starts on Thursday, December 23rd, and Ends Saturday afternoon December 25th.
The Canadian starting Wednesday morning December 22nd ending Saturday afternoon December 25th.
The GFS starting Thursday morning December 23rd ending Saturday afternoon December 25th.
Of the three models, the Canadian and the Euro are colder, the GFS is pretty warm. All models are trying to figure out another storm after this period. The Canadian and Euro show it coming in Sunday night the 26th. The GFS has been struggling with the second storm. It seems to change from run to run.
The GFS operational model is a 16-day model. The Euro and Canadian are 10-day models. Because of that, the GFS gives a longer glimpse into the future. You can’t use the data that many days in advance for a pinpoint forecast, but it is helpful for pattern recognition. Based on what I am seeing, we are headed into a cold and wet pattern. That is exactly what I would expect with the MJO going into phase 8.
Here are the current precipitation totals for the three operational models.
Euro
Canadian
GFS
If any of these solutions verify it would put Wolf Creek over 100 inches for the season. Telluride will be close. I am reasonably confident that Purgatory will get there by the first week in January, possibly much sooner!
Hopefully, the Euro and Canadian will stay on the rails. Assuming they do, I should be able to better address travel issues by Monday.
My next update will be Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
Weather Underground showing snow every day from Wednesday to Monday…….https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/co/bayfield/KCOBAYFI54. That’s pretty wild for sure !!