Tuesday Morning Update

12/21/21 Tuesday 4:40 am

The morning model runs are going to be very interesting. The evening runs were pretty epic. The overnight run of the GFS has just become available and it has backed off its totals from the previous run. Despite that, it is still impressive. My question now is:  are these slightly lower totals from the GFS the beginning of a trend or just a one-off?

As far as travel goes, most of the daylight hours on Thursday look good. It does look like conditions will deteriorate after that. Even with potential lulls in the precipitation possible Friday or Saturday, at some point, there will have to be avalanche mitigation.

There are still some differences among the models. I expect there will continue to be even after the first flakes start falling. The overall message has not changed, this is going to be a major storm, especially in the higher elevations. I am not at all downplaying the mid and lower elevations. The models are going to struggle with that portion of the forecast. I will be addressing that more tomorrow and Thursday.

Here are the latest model runs for precipitation during the Thursday through Sunday evening timeline.

Latest Canadian–somehow it got even more aggressive with its precipitation totals.

Latest European

Latest GFS–this is considerably lower than its previous run 6 hours earlier.

Previous GFS run

German–this is the most precipitous run I have ever seen from this model in the relatively short time (2 years) that I have been using it.

I will do my best to field some travel questions today. Reach out via the contact link below. As I said, I don’t anticipate any travel issues, coming or going, through Thursday afternoon. Expect a Winter Storm Watch coming out of the Pueblo NWS office later today. I would be very surprised if we don’t see the same from the NWS Grand Junction office today as well.

My next update will be before 2 pm, hopefully, earlier. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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2 thoughts on “Tuesday Morning Update

  1. Mark Gigliotti

    I talked to buddy in SFO area and the lake their has already gone up 10 feet since early November. They are expecting rain 10 out of the next 14 days.

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