12/22/21 Wednesday 6:15 am
I still can’t answer the question that is on a lot of your minds. Namely, how much snow will fall on the lower and mid-elevations.
As opposed to what I showed you in yesterday’s afternoon update, the models came in a little warmer overnight. They still prefer the late start to the precipitation on Thursday. Also, the models are downplaying the second piece of energy due in late Saturday through Sunday. They are keeping nearly everything, and it is a lot, in the first wave.
If the warmer forecast verifies for the lower elevations, it won’t bother me. Because I know colder air is on the way, and I can see three or four more chances for snow at all elevations between December 26th and January 3rd.
On the surface, the models have been very consistent lately with their precipitation output. Below the surface, there have been inconsistencies with timing, temperatures, and precipitation type, and snow levels.
The Canadian is intriguing. It has dug in its feet on these higher precipitation totals. Usually, you see fluctuations from run to run as we have from time to time the last few days with the GFS and Euro.
If the Canadian does not change its tune by Thursday’s morning run, then it will be difficult to continue to ignore it. Last time, I should have ignored the Euro’s anomalous run. It has a better reputation, or should I say people’s perception of that model is more favorable than the Canadian. There were only two anomalous Euro runs that caught my attention last storm. There have been about ten runs in a row from the Canadian showing huge totals.
Here are the “above the surface” views of the latest precipitation forecasts from models. I am sticking to my guns with the Thursday through Sunday totals approach. On Saturday, I will look at the Saturday night-Sunday storm on its own merits.
And here are the ones I am excited about. These are the blended models from NWS/NOAA. They are the ones that usually ruin the party. This time they seem to be looking forward to the party!
Every single model run I have shown you this morning is calling for 30 to 40+ inches of snow at Wolf Creek. The Canadian showed up with another 70+ inch snow forecast for Wolf Creek.
I still am not planning on basing my forecasts on data from the Canadian model. But I won’t be able to put it out of my mind if it continues to look like this.
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