Wednesday Noon Update

12/22/21 Wednesday 12 pm

I have picked up a number of new followers so I wanted to take a moment to explain the way I go about things on this site. While I am tracking a storm before it arrives I will post the various weather model maps. The parameter I use the most is the parameter of total precipitation in inches. I do that because people like to know how much beneficial moisture we are getting. They are also used to seeing me post the same model output during the monsoon season.

Rarely do I post the snow output parameter from the weather models. The output on my models defaults to 10 inches of snow for every 1 inch of liquid. This ratio is called SWE which means snow-water-equivalent.

No two storms are ever the same. When we have a warm-based storm, like the first wave coming in late Thursday through early Saturday, the lower elevations and many of the mid-elevation areas will not average 10 inches of snow from 1 inch of liquid throughout the period. It is likely to be more of a mix of rain and snow, before turning to snow by Saturday morning. More on that tomorrow.

The higher elevations above 8,500 feet will probably average a 10 to 1 SWE ratio with this first wave. Areas above 10,000 feet will average near an 11.5 to 1 SWE ratio.

I usually wait until the afternoon before the main storm arrives and then post my forecasts for all of the locations throughout the forecast area. I have not formulated those forecasts yet for the mid and lower elevations. But here are my thoughts on the Ski Areas. Purgatory will likely get between 2 and 3 feet of snow by Sunday evening. Telluride should get between 18 and 24 inches by Sunday evening. Wolf Creek will easily get between 2 and 3 feet by Sunday evening. I feel that these amounts are on the conservative side.

The latest model runs this morning were very similar to their previous runs. These are total liquid precipitation in inches through Sunday evening.





Here are the two NOAA models I included this morning. They have increased their totals in this run.

NOAA–National Blend of Models (NBM)

NOAA–Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

My next update should be before 5 pm. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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