Thursday Afternoon–Preliminary Forecast

12/23/21 Thursday 3:30 pm

I have said this several times over the last few days. This is a very tricky snow forecast for areas below 7,000 feet through Saturday morning.

The storm will pick up in intensity tonight in areas above 8,500 feet. For lower and mid-elevation areas it will start slow but start to pick up after sunrise tomorrow. The temperatures below 7,000 feet are forecasted to be steady in the low to mid-30s.  At somewhere between 7,400 feet and 8,000 feet, the precipitation should fall as all snow on Friday. The trend has been lower snow levels for the last couple of runs.

Since I do not expect snow tonight in areas below 7,000 feet I am going to delay my forecast for those areas until Friday morning.

Here are my forecasts for areas above 7,000 feet. I am going to start with the easy ones first–the areas at or above 8,500 feet. These forecasts are for total snowfall between now and Sunday evening. I don’t expect any changes to the resort forecasts, but I may increase the mid-elevations tomorrow morning when I release the lower elevation snow forecasts. I may be too low for Purgatory, Wolf Creek,  Telluride, and Silverton but I view that as a happy problem.

30 to 40+ inches:  Wolf Creek

20 to 30+ inches:  Purgatory and Mayday

15 to 22 inches:  Lemon at or above 8,500 feet, Wilderness,  Silverton in town

12 to 20 inches: Telluride, Red Mountain

8 to 14 inches: Hesperus Hill, Upper Forest Lakes, Vallecito, Upper Durango Hills, Aspen Trails, Los Ranchitos, Trew Creek, Tween Lakes, Hesperus Ski area

6 to 10 inches:  Trappers Crossing, Long Hollow Ranch@141, DW 1&2, Lake Durango, Edgemont Ranch, Edgemont Highlands, Bear Creek, Lower Durango Hills, Rafter J, Falls Creek South, Pine River Ranches, Durango Ridge Ranch, Lower Forest Lakes, Lower Durango Hills, Falls Creek, Glacier Club, Rockwood, Deer Valley Estates, Pagosa Springs

3-6 inches: Ouray, Ridgway

Again, depending on what I see tomorrow morning I may increase these totals. This storm is really going to get into gear tomorrow morning. Reports from low and middle elevation areas will be appreciated!

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