Sorry for the delay in getting this out. I have been working on it for three hours, but I have been waiting for the first round of high-resolution model runs to finish this up. I have not read any of your emails that were sent later than 5:30 am. Thanks for all of the reports.
As advertised, it is all about the temperatures. I am at 7430 feet. It is 32.7 degrees, I have had 2 inches of very wet snow as of 6 am. Higher up it is a different story.
Purgatory reported 8 inches at 5 am and it is coming down at a pretty good clip. Telluride has 4 new inches so far. The later portions of the storm will be kind to Telluride. Wolf Creek just reported 14 inches of new snow as of 6:30 am.
Things are going to pick up considerably as the day goes on. The “meat” of the storm is far away. According to the latest model runs snow levels should start to drop between 11 am and 2 pm. Until then temperatures will fluctuate very little today. The temperatures are not going to drop today like they did when the massive cold front went through a week and a half ago.
I am not going to change my existing forecasts. As far as the lower elevations go, I think 1 to 3 inches of snow will fall above 6,500 feet by tomorrow morning. Areas between 6,800 to 7,100 could get 2 to 4 inches of snow. Hopefully, I am wrong and the snow levels will lower sooner than I expect.
This is a much different way to forecast snow than I usually do. Usually, different locations have subtle terrain variances that influence the amount of snow they get. In a normal storm, I may forecast more snow for Forest Lakes than for Durango West. That could be the result of the way the front is oriented or a different wind from a different direction. With this storm we have a firehose pointed at us. For the early part of the storm, the key factors are moisture and elevation.
Don’t be concerned if you are not in an area that is getting a lot of snow right now. This is only the beginning.
Here are the latest snow forecasts from the Canadian and GFS for the 5 day period beginning Monday.
I will be sharing a lot more maps like this starting Saturday afternoon.
I am still expecting some snow in the higher elevations throughout the day on Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday. It will not be as heavy as it currently is, but it will still keep piling up.
For mid-elevations, there should be more of a distinct lull in the snow on Saturday. But we may see some leftovers here and there before the snow becomes more consistent on Sunday.
In the lower elevations, the snow should come to an end Saturday morning. It will redevelop on Sunday morning and light snow should fall throughout the day.
So to recap, according to the latest models, the snow levels will lower slightly by 2 pm today. Areas above 6,500 feet should see a couple of inches of snow by tomorrow morning. Areas around 7,000 feet could get a little more than that.
My next update will be Friday afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!