12/27/21 Monday 3:20 pm
Here is an excerpt from an email I received from a follower this afternoon.
“We left Colorado Springs yesterday at 10am and were stuck in South Fork when Wolf Creek pass closed. We left South Fork early this morning ~4:30am and the pass was very sketchy. The snow banks were 5-8 feet tall and blowing snow drove zero visibility intermittently. We drove a 4WD vehicle but slowed way down based on the conditions”
Conditions over the passes are unlikely to improve anytime soon. They will decline rapidly this evening. Snow will be on the increase into the evening.
Here are the latest model runs showing precipitation totals through Wednesday. SWE ratios will range from 10 to 1 below 6,900 feet, 13 to 1 up to 8,300 feet, 14 to 1 above 8,300 feet, and 17 to 1 at or above 10,000 feet. If you are new this means means you multiply the SWE ratio by the forecasted liquid at your location. Or, you can just check out my forecasts towards the end of this update.
For my snowfall forecast I blended these four models and weighted different strengths and weaknesses of each model.
Here are my snowfall forecasts beginning at 8 am this morning through 5 pm on Wednesday. For the lower elevations, this is more of a marathon than a sprint. Snow may slowly accumulate at times and these totals are through the day on Wednesday.
26 to 36 inches: Wolf Creek
12 to 18 inches: Purgatory, Rico, Mayday, Lemon above 8,500 feet, Wilderness,
10 to 16 inches: Hesperus Hill, Upper Forest Lakes, Vallecito, Upper Durango Hills, Aspen Trails, Los Ranchitos, Trew Creek, Tween Lakes, Hesperus Ski Area, Glacier Club, , Forest Groves, Falls Creek north, Silverton in town
8 to 12 inches: Telluride, Red Mountain, Trappers Crossing, Long Hollow Ranch@141, DW 1&2, Lake Durango, Edgemont Ranch, Edgemont Highlands, Bear Creek, Lower Durango Hills, Rafter J, Falls Creek South, Pine River Ranches, Durango Ridge Ranch, Lower Forest Lakes, Lower Durango Hills, Falls Creek, Deer Valley Estates, Pagosa Springs, Rockwood
6 to 10 inches: Durango, Bayfield, Breen, Dolores, Hermosa below 7,000 feet–the highest totals will be in Skyridge, Hillcrest, Timberline and the North Valley
3 to 6 inches: Cortez, Mancos in town, Marvel, Kline, Rancho Durango, Ouray, Ridgway, Ignacio
2 to 4 inches: Aztec, Bondad
My next update will be early Monday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!