Drilling Down On The Next Major Storm

12/29/21 Wednesday 12:55 pm

The models have not yet come into agreement on the timing for the onset of heavy precipitation. They are coming into better agreement regarding precipitation totals. They are also showing 2 to 3 hours of 34-degree temperatures at or below 6,500 feet. This would occur between 2 pm until 5 pm. This could affect low elevation totals and get messy again.

If you are in the lower elevation areas and waiting to clear snow until everything is done on Saturday, you could end up with a frozen mess. Temperatures are going to drop significantly after the storm passes. Many locations will be below zero by Sunday morning.

Currently, the European is showing the heaviest snow between 4 pm and 11 pm on Friday. The GFS and Canadian are faster with the storm overall. So if you want more snow than slop in the lower elevations root for European in this line-up.

These merging storm scenarios often take a little longer to come together than models predict, hopefully, that will be the case here.

Here are my estimates for snowfall from now until the storm departs the area sometime on Saturday. Depending on the timing of the storm it will be Thursday afternoon or Friday morning before I can give you a more precise forecast.

Aztec:  0-2 inches

Low elevation areas at or below 6,500 feet:  3 to 12 inches

Mid elevation areas below 8,000 feet: 12 to 24 inches

Above 8,500 feet:  16 to 36 inches

Wolf Creek 32 to 50 inches

Here are the latest precipitation forecasts. Until I have a better idea of temperature profiles I have to use a very wide-ranging estimate for snowfall potential.






My next update will be Thursday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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