12/29/21 Wednesday 8:40 am
Intermittent scattered snow showers will continue today through late Thursday night. Moderate snow on Friday will become heavy by Friday afternoon. The snow will alternate between heavy and moderate until the storm departs on Saturday. Snow will end from low elevations to high elevations between 5 am and 5 pm Saturday.
Snow totals since Monday have not been as hoped at Purgatory. The wind flow pattern has been variable, at times taking more of a westerly component. This scenario has also affected areas north of Bayfield and along the 240 corridor.
In that type of set up areas west of 550 tend to get more snow than areas east of 550 in La Plata County. West-southwest flow is favorable for Wolf Creek and they have piled up 40 more inches since Monday with about 7 feet in 7 days.
Overnight, the models continued to work through the inconsistencies among themselves with timing and temperatures. The totals were consistent with what I shared yesterday. The GFS and Euro actually came in higher than the previous runs.
The Advisory and Warnings just expired with the exception of Wolf Creek, which is scheduled to expire at 11 am. The Winter Storm Watches will go into effect tonight at 11 pm. Additionally, a level 4 Avalanche Watch has gone into effect for the next 24 hours. Here they are as written.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
802 AM MST WED DEC 29 2021
COZ009-012-019-292315-
/O.EXP.KGJT.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-211229T1500Z/
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.A.0008.211230T0600Z-220101T1200Z/
GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CRESTED BUTTE, TAYLOR PARK, MARBLE, SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
802 AM MST WED DEC 29 2021
…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 24 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 FEET POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS AND WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
COZ018-292315-
/O.EXP.KGJT.WW.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-211229T1500Z/
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.A.0008.211230T0600Z-220101T1200Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
802 AM MST WED DEC 29 2021
…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 24 INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Avalanche Watch
COZ004-009-010-012-013-019-031-068-301515-
BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
AVALANCHE WATCH
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
701 AM MST WED DEC 29 2021
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER.
* WHAT…Avalanche Watch
* WHERE… CAIC Forecast Zones: Steamboat and Flat Tops, Aspen,
Gunnison, Grand Mesa, and South San Juan forecast zones
* WHEN… Begin Wednesday, December 29 At 7:00 AM Expires Thursday, December 30 at 8:00 AM
* IMPACTS… Widespread dangerous conditions are expected across
large portions of Colorado on Thursday due to snowfall and strong
winds. The avalanche danger will rise to HIGH (Level 4 of 5).
Large natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely.
* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended in these forecast zones on Thursday. Go to
http://www.colorado.gov/avalanche for the most up-to-date information.
My next update will be out by 1 pm Wednesday. I will be discussing how much more snow we can expect before it stops. Thanks for following and supporting the site!