1/4/22 Tuesday 9:45 am

Short Term Outlook

The main storm track has shifted to our north but between tonight and Saturday night there will chance for very light snow favoring the northern portions of the forecast area. Tonight and Wednesday night, Telluride, Ouray, Red Mountain, and Silverton could see a few flakes in the overnight hours. Only minor accumulations are expected. On Saturday, chances increase for snow across the entire forecast area before the ridge arrives late Sunday into Monday.

Extended Period

My intention was to spend some time going over the extended model runs and discuss what I am expecting to happen over the next two months. For now, there is very poor agreement among the extended and seasonal models. We were in a similar situation in November.

By the end of November, there was much better agreement among the extended models showing not only the storms on the 9th and 14th but hinting at much higher totals towards the end of December. By December 16th, I was already tracking the storm cycle we just finished on Saturday. The purpose of me sharing this with you is because I think I will be in a similar situation in about 10 days or so. I expect that by then the models will be honing in on the next pattern change.

But first, we will have to deal with the ridging. The high-pressure ridge is really going to build in starting on Sunday or Monday and stick around for about a week. The jet stream is going to split, which is good because it could lead to what is called a “dirty” ridge, where minor disturbances can slip under and bring the potential for a couple of small storms during that period.

After the ridge flattens, I believe we are going to return to another extended period of cold and snowy weather. This should start around the last week of January and continue well into February.

My next update will be Wednesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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